What could be reasons for Predictability to be > 100%

Rajmohan Maudshetty July 8, 2024

Appreciate thoughts please on reasons for Predictability to be > 100%

2 answers

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Bill Sheboy
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July 9, 2024

Hi @Rajmohan Maudshetty -- Welcome to the Atlassian Community!

Where in Jira Cloud are you observing an indicator of sprint predictability > 100%?

Please post an image of the page view which shows this.  That may provide more context for the community to offer suggestions.  Thanks!

Kind regards,
Bill

Rajmohan Maudshetty July 9, 2024

Hi @Bill Sheboy thank you very much for your thoughts. Predictability > 100% is on our project dashboard of which I cannot post an image here, apologies. My current understanding is that Predictability would be > 100% if PBI is overestimated. I want to know if this is a reason and also if there could be other reasons. 

Kind Regards,

Raj

Bill Sheboy
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July 10, 2024

From what you describe, there may be an error on your project dashboard display or in the measure / algorithm used to determine your value.

You note "Predictability would be > 100% if PBI is overestimated".  That seems like a potential problem.  For example, if people are measured (or rewarded) based on improved predictability with your measure, they could just regularly inflate estimates!  Or as Eliyahu M. Goldratt stated:

Tell me how you measure me, and I will tell you how I will behave.

 

Perhaps try this:

  • Identify what problem you are trying to solve by measuring "predictability" in this way.  That is, "why do that?" 
  • Describe what "better" would look like for that problem
  • Identify how you would know things are "better" through observation
  • Identify how you would measure that
  • Now you may have a measure more aligned to the problem you are trying to solve, and that could be used to assess progress

 

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Rebekka Heilmann _viadee_
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July 8, 2024

Hi @Rajmohan Maudshetty and welcome to the Community,

could you give us a little more context to your question?

Rajmohan Maudshetty July 9, 2024

Hi @Rebekka Heilmann _viadee_  thank you very much. 

I am trying to understand the reasons why Sprint predictability for a Scrum team could be > 100%. Thanks 

Rebekka Heilmann _viadee_
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Community Leaders are connectors, ambassadors, and mentors. On the online community, they serve as thought leaders, product experts, and moderators.
July 10, 2024

What do you mean by "Sprint predictability" though? You mentioned a Dashboard above. I've not heard of a Gadget with that name. Are you using a Third Party App? What does it predict exactly?

Rajmohan Maudshetty July 10, 2024

Hi @Rebekka Heilmann _viadee_ , Greetings.

Sorry I meant to say 'Team Predictability' > 100% on our project dashboard. I am discussing with the owner of the dashboard to understand how 'Team Predictability' is being determined.  

I generally brought-up in this community, as to why Predictability would be > 100% and what should be the corrective actions. 

Kind regards,

Raj 

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