I am currently tracking a version in JIRA.
The current status is that 28 story points have yet to be completed. Team average velocity should be around 29 story points per sprint, and each sprint has a duration of 2 weeks. I would expect a projected end date of ~2 weeks, but I see that the version reports indicate the versions to be ready in ~2 months from now.
Am I missing something? Is the version report taking into account something I do not see (e.g. the rate with which new issues are created in the same version)?
To have a consistent prediction in the Version Report it is important to:
Other bits and pieces may influence. This article should help figuring out if still something is missing.
I would assume that the chart is based only on story points and only stories have story points estimation: ech sub-tasks should not be considered.
Maybe I did not understand what you exactly mean, but I do not really see how the theoretical should be 4 times slower than the mean velocity.
@Andrea Caponio, I agree on the surface that the prediction shouldn't be 4x. I wish I could offer more advice but w/o seeing the details I can't say for sure. I haven't used the Version report for a couple years now and recall when I first started it was confusing for me but ultimately was able to decipher the deltas between the various prediction models. I'm guessing you have already read this article but sharing just in case it helps.
Hopefully others that are actively using this report can provide some better assistance.
@Jack @Andrea Caponio , while it makes sense that you can adjust the start date, it does not make sense to me why JIRA is just doing a very simple linear fit to the data. Our team's velocity has increased as more people have started ramping up on the release, and this is not reflected at all in the predicted dates, making it pretty useless.
See screenshot. It's pretty easy to eyeball and know that we'll likely be completing right around the completion date, however, we wont get any indication in the prediction until about a week before completion. Seems like they should be doing a mixture of moving averages or non-linear fit to more accurately predict. The fit currently there literally just interpolates a line from the start date to the current date completion count...making it pretty useless.
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