I would start by shutting down the instance, back everything up (server, dbserver, filesystems, the works!). Then proceed to upgrade the db server. Once this is done, you should be able to use the installer to perform a upgrade on confluence. Confluence server comes with it's own JRE embedded, so i don't think you have to think about this. Your versions seem close enough to make the upgrade in one step, but seeing that i am not all-knowing i would read all release notes/upgrade notes between the versions you are upgrading between. Make sure to backup server.xml, cacerts and any other file that might have been customized during the last versions life, as many of these files are dismissed and have to be reconfigure. When doing the upgrade, the installer will list all files that differ from the original file. I would backup all these files to easily find what changes might have been created. Once more, BACK IT ALL UP and make sure you can revert in a easy way. If you are lucky enough to run it on VMware, i would snapshot all VM's in case you need to revert. Also don't forget to delete the snapshots once done, as this will fill out datastores.
Good luck!
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