Followed the normal process (https://confluence.atlassian.com/crowd/upgrading-crowd-via-automatic-database-upgrade-213519474.html) and in atlassian-crowd.log I can see expected logging of my home (which I have unimaginitively set the Atlassian document example)
Using config directory : /var/crowd-home/shared
References to migrating database tables and then accessing my Active Directory, with
FULL synchronisation complete for directory [ 32770 ] in [ 1835ms ]
So it looked normal and no errors were reported, however, when I go to the URL, it's presenting the setup Crowd dialog