#1 Report of the Week: Project Prediction Report

[#1]

We are launching a new post series titled "Report of the Week", where we will review some of the most popular Jira reports and how to use them. These include reports for project overviews, issue analysis, version tracking, agile metrics, sprint performance, time tracking, Kanban boards, forecasting, and more.

Our first post focuses on project forecasting, specifically how to predict project end dates using a timeline chart.

Predicting the completion of a project can be tricky, but a well-structured timeline chart can make it much easier. Here's a guide on how to use a Project Prediction timeline chart to forecast your project's end date and read the report to make informed decisions.

Let's have a look at the steps to create this report:

1. Understand the Purpose
The main goal of this chart is to visualize your project’s current progress and provide predictions for issue resolution and overall project completion. The chart estimates when the project will be finished based on the number of all project issues over time and the current pace of resolving issues.

2. Set the Time Frame
The timeline uses a weekly scale, showing data for each week from the date of the first resolved issues (calculated measure “Project start date”) till the predicted project completion date (calculated measure “Project predicted date”).

3. Analyze Actual Progress
The chart uses two key facts (metrics) to help you track real progress:

• Issues History: This line shows the total number of issues on each week allowing you to see the project scope growth over time.

• Cumulative Issues Resolved: Displayed as an area chart, this shows the total number of resolved issues over time, giving you a clear view of how much has been accomplished.

4: Review Predictions

The chart's prediction is based on the average rate of issue resolution from the project’s start to the current date. This average is then extrapolated into the future to predict when the remaining issues will be resolved and the project might be completed:

• Project Prediction: This is the main forecast line showing the expected future trajectory of issue resolution. Based on the current pace of resolving issues (total number of resolved issues divided by the number of Days since the project start date), it predicts when all remaining issues will likely be resolved.

• Project Prediction Low & High: These lines show a range of potential outcomes, accounting for variations in project pace. The "low" line represents a 10% slower pace for resolving issues, while the "high" line assumes a 10% faster one.

• Rolling Prediction: This is a continuously updated forecast that adjusts based on the most recent data, giving you a real-time estimate as the project evolves. In the example, it looks on the last 52 weeks.

• S-Curve Guideline: This is a reference line that represents an ideal project progress curve. It can help you understand whether your project is on track or if adjustments are needed.

5. Navigate the Timeline
The chart provides a few important markers to keep you oriented:

• Project start date: Date of the first resolved issues. The timeline chart and all predictions start from this date.

• Today: A vertical line indicates the current date, helping you compare your progress against the forecast.

• Predicted On: This label shows the project’s predicted end date based on the issue resolution pace and actual project scope.
  
  

6: Customize with Filters
The chart is flexible and allows you to apply filters for more specific insights. You can filter the data by Project, Issue Type, or Assignee, giving you a tailored view of progress depending on your needs. If needed, you can add more filters to focus on specific components, program increments, or teams.

7: Make Informed Decisions
By visualizing progress and predictions, this report gives project managers and teams the insights they need to determine if they are on track, identify potential delays, and make adjustments where necessary. Historical data combined with predictive analytics provides a clearer understanding of the project’s timeline and possible outcomes.
Using this method, you can stay proactive in managing your project and make more accurate predictions about when it will be completed.

Try out this report of your data! Export the report definition and paste it into your account to analyze your data with a couple of clicks.

[Stephen_Lugton]

Thanks @Evita Legzdina_eazyBI this was a useful summary and reminder

[Evita Legzdina_eazyBI]

@Stephen_Lugton happy to hear you find this valuable. Stay tuned, there will be a new report shared every week!