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Is velocity the key to predictable delivery?

Evan Fishman - Quely for Jira
Atlassian Partner
September 30, 2025

A lot of teams act like it is, and there are reasons why:

  • It’s a simple number that helps forecast capacity.

  • It trends upward when processes stabilize, signaling improvement.

  • It’s built into every Agile tool, so it’s easy to track.

  • Executives love it because throughput is visible sprint-to-sprint.

Velocity is useful, but here’s the catch:

It doesn’t account for real-world complexity like scope churn, unplanned work, or dependencies. It can be gamed with padded estimates or story splitting.

And it doesn’t explain the real causes of delay, like design-to-dev handoffs, QA bottlenecks, or quality drag.

Velocity isn’t the goal. Predictability comes from system health.

When you manage the system, velocity becomes a by-product, not the objective.

What should you manage instead?

  • Flow & variability: cycle time, lead time, blocked time, plan reliability.

  • Quality & rework: defect rate, escaped bugs, carryover.

  • Collaboration & handoffs: dwell time between design → dev → QA, review/PR latency.

  • Load & team health: workload balance, context switching, engagement signals.

Do this, and you unlock what leaders actually care about:
✅ More predictability
✅ Accurate forecasts
✅ Less rework
✅ Healthier teams
✅ Consistent delivery

That’s why we built Quely Analytics: to show delivery speed alongside the causes behind it—flow, quality, handoffs, and team load, all in one view.

HERE IS A QUICK DEMO: https://bit.ly/QANALYTICS

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