Let’s admit it: we are not very good at estimating.
We routinely overestimate and underestimate work, influenced by individual perspectives, experience, and incomplete information. The challenge becomes even more pronounced when estimates turn into commitments—especially when timelines are shared with stakeholders and delivery expectations are set.
While experience helps us improve over time, estimation rarely happens in isolation. In modern organizations, it usually happens across teams—or even teams of teams. This is where alignment on scope and complexity often becomes harder than producing the estimates themselves.
In this article, we propose a practical approach and toolset to estimate faster, with less friction, and with multiple teams involved.
You have probably heard the saying: “Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”
The same applies to estimation.
The real value of estimation lies in the process itself. It helps teams:
These conversations are critical for making informed decisions and aligning teams around a common approach.
Ask any project or delivery manager, and you will hear the same response:
“This is all valuable—but we still need numbers.”
And they are right.
Estimates are not about precision. They are about expectation management—both internally and externally. Teams need a foundation for meaningful discussions about timelines, capacity, and trade-offs. Stakeholders need a way to reason about delivery without false certainty.
Good estimates enable better conversations. Bad estimates create false confidence.
This is not a new problem. Over time, people have discovered something important:
We are much better at comparing than estimating in absolute values (e.g. hours).
Teams align faster when they compare new work to previously completed, well-understood items. Agreement on relative size and complexity comes more naturally than debating absolute numbers.
This leads to the idea of estimation by clustering:
Compare new work items against a set of known reference items with established estimates.
As the saying goes, “The best weather forecast is for yesterday.” They also say “The estimate is significantly more accurate when done collaboratively.”
Now let’s apply this idea at scale—across multiple software and business teams—using Atlassian Jira.
Start by selecting a set of completed work items with:
If you don’t have any completed work yet and everything is new, consider adding a couple of well-estimated items.
Aim for 2–3 reference items per estimation grade. Tag (e.g. use label Jira field) clearly so they can be queried using JQL and added to your main JQL you will use to pull the backlog of work items for the estimation exercise. Over time, you can replace or refine these reference items as better examples emerge.
Create a board where:
Reference work items could naturally sit within swimlanes defined. Or in case you are using a JQL-based swimlane you might consider to put collect them into separate (top) swimlane
Standard Jira Agile boards limit columns to statuses. To overcome this limitation, consider:
For example, Advanced Kanban & Agile Boards allows any standard or custom field to be used for columns and swimlanes, and even includes a ready-made estimation-by-clustering template.
To keep things consistent:
If you are using different project types and therefore different Story Points standard fields you might consider a different custom field to align or a custom field for t-shirt size estimation technique that could be later converted into numbers by simple mapping.
Estimation drift—where story point estimates increase over time for tasks of similar complexity—is a common challenge.
This drift is typically driven by a few key factors:
These issues can be mitigated—and estimation consistency improved over time—by using an estimation reference board and applying estimation by clustering, as described in the sections of this article.
Several usability details significantly speed up estimation:
With good preparation, estimation becomes a seamless exercise of comparing new items against reference work and placing them accordingly.
An added benefit of this approach is flexibility.
If your board allows moving items between swimlanes, estimation sessions can also surface:
When standard Jira fields are updated automatically, all related boards, reports, and Marketplace apps reflect the results immediately.
People—and especially groups—are far better at comparison than at absolute estimation.
By creating reference estimation boards with:
…organizations can dramatically reduce estimation friction while improving alignment and expectation management. Overtime it can also help fight estimation drift problem.
With the right preparation and a few thoughtful usability choices, estimation at scale becomes faster, clearer, and far less painful.
Yuri Lapin _Release Management_
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