📢 Coming Soon: Agile Monte Carlo charts – probabilistic forecasting arrives in Jira 🎯

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Hey Atlassian Community! 👋

At Broken Build, we're committed to solving the real challenges Agile teams face every day. Our most recent launch, Agile Cumulative Flow Charts (released in October), brought powerful flow metrics directly into your Jira dashboards. Now, we're thrilled to announce our next innovation: Agile Monte Carlo Charts – a new forecasting powerhouse coming soon to the Agile Reports suite.

If you've ever struggled to answer questions like "When will we actually ship this?" or "How much can we realistically commit to?" – this app is built for you.

What is Monte Carlo Simulation for Agile Teams?

Monte Carlo simulation is a probabilistic forecasting technique that uses your team's historical throughput to predict future delivery outcomes. Instead of relying on guesswork or fixed estimates, Monte Carlo Agile forecasting runs thousands of simulations based on real data, giving you probability distributions that reveal the most likely scenarios for your projects.

With Monte Carlo Jira integration, you can finally bring data-driven confidence to sprint planning, release forecasting, and portfolio management.

Key capabilities of Agile Monte Carlo Charts by Broken Build

⚡ Powerful forecasting modes

1️⃣ “When” mode (delivery date forecasting)
Answer the question: "When will we finish this scope?" Perfect for Monte Carlo project estimation and release planning.

• Histogram of dates – visualize the distribution of completion dates across thousands of simulation trials

• Cumulative probability curve – see the exact likelihood of finishing by any given date (e.g., "85% confidence by Dec 12")

• RAG segmentation – instantly spot delivery risk with color-coded probability bands (green >85%, amber 50-85%, red <50%)

• Historical throughput chart – understand the stability of your velocity and validate your sampling window

2️⃣ “How many” mode (scope by date forecasting)
Answer the question: "How much can we deliver by this deadline?" Ideal for sprint planning and quarterly commitments.

• Histogram of issue counts – see the distribution of items you'll likely complete within your timeframe

• Probability bands – understand confidence levels for different scope targets using Monte Carlo probability distribution

• Throughput validation – verify your historical data is stable enough for reliable predictions

⚙️ Flexible throughput configuration

Monte Carlo simulations require reliable historical data. Our app gives you complete control:

• Multiple data sources – Pull from Scrum boards, Kanban boards, projects, releases, epics, or custom JQL queries

• Alternative throughput comparison – Test scenarios using different team velocities or exclude specific periods

• Intelligent sampling – Automatically exclude the active interval (current week/sprint) to avoid bias

• Capacity allocation – Model part-time teams or shared resources with adjustable coefficients

📊 Configurable remaining work

Set exactly what you want to forecast with Monte Carlo forecasting:

• Auto-detection – Automatically count unresolved issues in your selected scope

• What-if scenarios – Input hypothetical backlog sizes to explore different commitment levels

• Epic estimates – Roll up story points or other estimation fields from child issues

• Custom JQL filtering – Refine your remaining work by assignee, labels, components, or any field

🎯 Smart progress tracking tiles

The Monte Carlo Chart forecasting simulation displays three essential metrics at a glance:

✅ Completed tile – Shows the percentage of your scope that's done (e.g., 23.8% complete means you know exactly how much work remains)

✅ Remaining work tile – Displays the number of unresolved issues or story points the simulation will forecast

✅ Target vs. Projection tile – Compares your due date or target scope against the simulation's median projection, showing you exactly how many days ahead or behind schedule you are

...and more features designed to make probabilistic forecasting accessible, actionable, and integrated directly into your Jira environment.

🚀 Stay tuned for launch!

We're putting the finishing touches on Agile Monte Carlo Charts and will be releasing it very soon.

Be first to know:

💌 Join the waiting list:

• Fill out the Google Form to be added to the list

• Reach out to our Support team

🧭 Explore more:

• Book a demo to get a preview of how the app works

📣 Stay tuned for the detailed release post!

📦 Explore the full Agile Reports suite

While you're waiting for Monte Carlo Charts, check out our existing apps that are already helping thousands of Agile teams:

Individual Apps:

• Agile Cumulative Flow Charts (new)

• Agile Velocity Charts

• Agile Cycle Time Charts

• Agile Burnup Burndown Charts

Complete Solution:

• Agile Reports & Gadgets (Bundle) - Access the combined capabilities of our four individual apps in a single comprehensive package, including Velocity Charts, Cycle Time Charts, and Burnup Burndown Charts.

Each app is designed to integrate seamlessly with Jira and provide actionable insights that drive better decision-making.

Ready to turn uncertainty into clarity? Monte Carlo simulation brings scientific forecasting to Agile delivery. Whether you're estimating release dates, planning sprints, or communicating risk to stakeholders, Agile Monte Carlo Charts will give you the confidence to make smarter commitments.

Stay tuned – the future of probabilistic forecasting is almost here! 🚀

Transform your forecasts. Elevate your insights. Build better with Broken Build.

Cheers,
The Broken Build Team