Can you look at the logs and see if there were any error during startup? Did you define a Stash home? If so, look at atlassian-stash.log under log folder. If you can't find it, look at catalina.out under Stash_Install_Dir/logs folder.
If you're still stuck you might want to raise a support ticket so that our support team can help.
Having JAVA_HOME in your environment should be enough. Is there _any_ output from running with '/fg', or does it look like the screenshot in the issue STASH-2822?
Assuming JAVA_HOME is set, or running 'set JAVA_HOME=c:\Your\Java' should be enough. If you edit the setenv.bat and change 'echo off' to 'echo on' that might give you more of an idea of why it isn't working. You might want to attach your JAVA_HOME variable as well as the output of running the script with echoing to the support ticket and here so we can help further.
I'm afraid we might need more than that. Is there anything in the $STASH_HOME/log/atlassian-stash.log file or the console?
If you started from the standard Stash distribution the above URL should work, but if you're using our developer tools it might need a '/stash' at the end of that URL. From the output of my console:
[INFO] [talledLocalContainer] Tomcat 7.x started on port  [INFO] stash started successfully in 186s at http://hostname:7990/stash
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