Different projections in Version Report than what we estimated manually

[Christel Gray]

We are trying to use Jira Cloud to project when a project milestone will be finished. We are looking at the Version Report reports. (BTW, we are running 2-week sprints)

The version report shows our predicted completion date as 7/14/22. However, we predicted we'll finish mid- to late December. 

Some additional information:

* 5.06% of the version is unestimated.

* We have 644 points incomplete.

* Our 4-sprint average velocity is 55.25.

Just using those numbers, we can estimate our completion date late September. However, we have some dependencies and limited skill availability, so it got pushed to December. But why is there such a difference between what Jira estimates and what we estimate. 

Additionally, I've never seen a burn-up chart go up sharply from today's date like this one..

Any insight is appreciated it. TIA!

[Nic Brough _Adaptavist_]

It's because you have not given Jira all the data it needs to be able to make the predictions.  It has no way of predicting what might happen with the 5% of your un-estimated issues, or your dependencies and skill availability.

It's also an Agile tool, so it assumes there's a lot of change will come into play during each sprint.  And you've got up-and-down spikes (lots of re-opening stories after they're done) which suggests you're reporting is likely to be undpredictable.